:: The traditional method of scoring probability forecasts is the Brier score.
2.
The service keeps cumulative records, and the probability forecast is a statistic based on what has happened, he said.
3.
Higher probability forecasts are less and less likely as the forecast period increases due to lessening forecast ability farther in advance.
4.
In sports betting, probability forecasts may not be published as such, but may underlie bookmakers'activities in setting pay-off rates, etc ..
5.
For example forecasters may combine their own experience together with computer-generated probability forecasts to construct a forecast of the type " we expect heavy rainfall ".
6.
After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J . Klotzbach.
7.
Weather forecasting represents a service in which probability forecasts are sometimes published for public consumption, although it may also be used by weather forecasters as the basis of a simpler type of forecast.
8.
Paradoxically, on a rainy day, a probability forecast of 10 percent could be part of a perfect prediction providing it rains on only 10 percent of the days when such a prediction is made.
9.
Paradoxically, even on a rainy day, a probability forecast of 20 percent could be part of a perfect prediction providing it rains on only 20 percent of the days when such a prediction is made.
10.
Paradoxically, even on a day with heavy rain, a probability forecast of 10 percent could be part of a perfect prediction, providing it rained on only 10 percent of similar days when such a prediction was made.
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